From 2008-2011 the Wolves averaged under 20 wins a season. They were borderline unwatchable at times. As a fan, I never showed up to watch the Timberwolves. It was always to watch the other team. The front office knew this, and even marketed the team that way.
As a Wolves fan from that era I was protective of Ryan Gomes, telling anybody who cared[1] that he could be a great sixth or seventh guy on a championship team. I tried to talk myself into the Kevin Love/Michael Beasley Batman & Robin combination. Never mind that whether or not Ryan Gomes could be a contributor on a championship team was irrelevant, he was on a terrible team. And I’m not sure what kind of defense Batman & Robin would have played on the basketball court, but it almost assuredly would have been better than the performance Love & Beasley put on that side of the ball in that 2011 season.
As a big NBA fan from Minnesota, I have to imagine I wasn’t the only one that had my fan allegiances shift to the Celtics. Watching Kevin Garnett, the only Timberwolf that ever really mattered, play on a great team that battled against the Kobe’s and LeBron’s of the league in the playoffs. The Timberwolves were an afterthought. They were a vehicle to watch KG come to town once a year.
The 2012-2014 seasons weren’t great for the Wolves. Pro-rated for 82 games, they averaged 34.4 wins. It was better than the initial post-KG era, but the Wolves never made the playoffs or even came close during those three seasons. But not everything about those Wolves can be boiled down to wins and losses.
I clearly remember the first time I went to a Wolves game after they traded KG when I was excited to watch the Timberwolves. It was December 30, 2011. Once the schedule was released after the lockout ended, I saw the Miami Heat on the calendar for the two weeks that I’d be back in Minnesota for the holidays. I was treating the Wolves the same as I always had since they’d traded KG. I saw an opportunity to watch a great team massacre the Timberwolves. I’d probably leave with a few minutes left in the fourth quarter, once I was confident the Heat win was in the bag.
What I got was an amazing game. The Heat quickly established themselves with an intense defensive effort leading to a parade of fast break dunks, leading 31-20 after the first quarter. Then Ricky Rubio came in. And for the first time in years the Timberwolves were fun to watch. Maybe it was the terrible Miami bench[2] but Ricky led a Wolves comeback. Minnesota was up by two at halftime. The Heat ended up sealing the win with an after time out play that led to LeBron throwing a lob from out of bounds to Dwyane Wade for a thunderous dunk. It was classic of that era’s Heat team. Miami won 103-101 but I also left that game blown away by Ricky Rubio.
He finished that game with 12 points, 12 assists, 6 rebounds, and orchestrated the Wolves comeback. Though he didn’t start, Rick Adelman let Rubio finish the game. Ricky didn’t play a perfect game, in the fourth quarter the Heat’s defense picked up and he committed a few too many turnovers, ending the game with five. But it was hard not to believe in the Wolves future after leaving that game.
Injuries and a loaded western conference played the largest part in preventing that iteration of the Wolves from ever qualifying for the playoffs. Another factor was that Ricky wasn’t good at closing games. He was neither a good finisher nor a good three point shooter. When opposing defenses ramped up their effort and played smarter in the last few minutes of the game, he was exposed at times.
As a Wolves fan that always looked at point differential as the greater indicator of performance than wins and losses, I was quick to point to the expected 48-34 record based on point differential of that 2014 team as an indicator of how good the team actually was. But it was also in part because the team wasn’t good at closing games. It’s difficult for big men to create opportunities for themselves in the final minutes and seconds of a game, but the Wolves had to rely on Kevin Love in those late game scenarios. The Wolves underperformed their expected record based on their point differential by at least two wins during every one of those seasons.
Despite the disappointments of those seasons, I know three things for sure.
1. The Timberwolves won more games during those years because Ricky Rubio was on the court
2. The Timberwolves were more fun to watch during those years because Ricky Rubio was on the court
3. Ricky established a connection with Wolves fans during those years that made his successes more meaningful
So I was thrilled when the Wolves traded for Ricky Rubio. Because all these years later, those three things will hold true for the 2021 Wolves.
The Game Changed and So Did Ricky
From what I’ve seen in the Rubio skepticism, it’s usually that analysts think that this team isn’t a a top 8 team in the west now and shouldn’t devote minutes and resources to a player that doesn’t line up with the timeline of the rest of the team. The secondary concern is that Rubio is ball dominant and not a viable 3 point threat and remains weak at driving to the rim.
I think the second critique misses the mark. Rubio isn’t great from the three point line, but he’s better than he used to be. Over his six years with the Wolves Rubio shot 31.5% from three and averaged 2.4 attempts per 36 minutes. But his percentage and attempts have increased. Since then he’s averaged 4.3 three point attempts per 36 minutes and shot 34.1% on them. Not great, but significantly better on both fronts. Last season alone he shot 36.1% from three.
The next critique is that Rubio can’t finish at the rim. Much like his three point shooting, while this is not one of Rubio’s strengths he is significantly better than he was during his previous time with the Wolves. From 2012-2017 he only shot 47.7% within three feet of the rim. In only one of those seasons (2016) did he shoot above 50% within three feet. After he left the Wolves, once again those numbers improved. From 2018-2020 he shot 54.9% within three feet of the rim. He was above 50% in each of those seasons. That’s a dramatic improvement.
This is not to say that Rubio is going to win games for the Wolves with his stellar three point shooting and unstoppable drives to the rim. Those remain some of the weaker parts of his game. But he’s not the same player he was in Minnesota. He’s much more well rounded offensively. And he remains a strong point guard and a good defensive player. And….um….the Wolves might need some players that know how to play both offense and defense. Crazy thought, I know. But Ed Davis, Josh Okogie, Jarrett Culver and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at this point are not good players on offense. And Towns, Russell, Beasley, and Hernangomez can only ever aspire to be average on defense. If any of them ever got there it would be legitimately shocking.
So can we at least agree that the Wolves will be better with Rubio on the team this year? That Rubio will help a team that almost certainly won’t have a first round draft pick this year, and thus have no incentive to tank, win games? Ok good.
Ricky Makes His Teammates Better, Not Worse
The other critique is that Rubio’s presence will impede the progress of some of the Wolves younger players. Never mind the fact that Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker thrived playing alongside him. Never mind the fact that D’Angelo Russell’s best season by far was the year he spent a lot of time sharing the backcourt with Spencer Dinwiddie. The semantics of whether or not Russell was the point guard or shooting guard in that backcourt with Dinwiddie can be debated, much like the Russell-Rubio backcourt will be this year. But that debate seems so antiquated in today’s NBA. It’s clear that the Wolves want multiple ballhandlers that can create plays on the court at the same time. It’s what all the most successful teams have.
I think a lot of the trepidation about Rubio playing for the Wolves this year comes back to the 2016 team. The front office brought in Kevin Garnett, Andre Miller, and Tayshaun Prince at the tail end of their careers to play alongside, or at times instead of the younger players on the roster. Each of them had positive plus/minus net per 100 possession numbers. And Sam Mitchell probably played Tayshaun Prince[3] in the final season of his career a little too much. Mitchell was trying to win games, trusted those veterans, and maybe could have/should have given more minutes to unproven players like Nemanja Bjelica, Tyus Jones, or (gulp) Shabazz Muhammad.
The first thing to note is the minutes those veterans played is exaggerated. Miller only played 26 games with the Wolves. KG only played 38, and averaged 15 minutes per game. Even Prince, who started 44 games, only averaged 19 minutes per game. The second thing to remember, that’s way more important, is that the current version of Ricky Rubio is way better than the 2016 edition of any of those guys. Rubio is coming off one of the best seasons of his career.
Last year Ricky averaged 8.8 assists per game, while his turnover rate was 17.9%, lower than any season he had with the Wolves, when it was always above 20%. His true shooting percentage was .535, compared to his career average of .514. Statistically the only season that rivals his 2020 performance is 2016. And while some are concerned about Russell playing alongside him, I can’t think of a player who was ever worse playing alongside Ricky. He’s going to make players around him better, not worse.
Time, He’s Waiting in the Wings
I think that more than anything hesitancy about Ricky coming back to the Wolves centers around skepticism that it’s a marketing ploy and that his timeline doesn’t line up with KAT and Russell.
The concerns over Ricky’s timeline aren’t unjustified, they’re just misplaced. Yes, Ricky is older than KAT and Russell. No, it doesn’t matter. Because realistically, this team isn’t built around Ricky Rubio anymore. He’ll be one of the best players on the team. He should (but won’t) start[4]. In the meantime, what’s wrong with winning games this year?
The concern that Ricky’s presence may stymie Culver, Okogie, Edwards, or insert young Wolves player here is overblown. The coaching staff and Wolves front office will give Culver, the sixth overall pick from just a year ago, every opportunity to rehabilitate his trade value.
Okogie has carved out his own very separate role from Rubio. While we can hope that Okogie develops a PJ Tucker like propensity for knocking down corner 3s, but the likeliest outcome at this point is that Okogie is what he is. He’s never going to be a great playmaker, but he’ll be a valuable energy player and defensive wing. And Edwards is just 19 and is best not thrown into the fire with a 25 minute per game role anyhow.
And even despite all that, giving young prospects playing time is a lot more meaningful if they’re playing in games that matter. The difference in reps that young players get between playing for a 25 win team that’s all but eliminated 25 games into the season and a 40 win team that’s actually playing for something can’t be quantified but it’s substantial. If Ricky is playing a real role on the Wolves, they’re much more likely to be the latter than the former and everybody will be better for it.
And of all the years to go for it, even if the Wolves don’t have a top eight team in the west, this is it. There will be a maximum of 72 games during the regular season. It may end up being less than that, depending on if there are unscheduled stoppages due to covid. A shorter season means more variability. The more games there are, the more likely the best teams finish with the best records. The shorter the season, the less predictable the outcomes and the Wolves are likelier to outperform expectations.
The other reality of the covid season is that some star players may unexpectedly end up missing significant time. Hopefully the NBA and the players manage to avoid this, but it’s the dark cloud hanging over everything. There’s a reason why they haven’t released a full schedule yet, an unprecedented move. Injuries happen every year, but with covid omnipresent those unfortunate and unexpected developments are going to be more common this season.
And perhaps the biggest reason to emphasize winning games this season is the play in tournament for the playoffs. The Wolves could finish tenth in the west and make a play in game, which would be a great experience for this young team. It would mean we would get to see Ricky play for the Timberwolves in a pseudo playoff game. And we shouldn’t underestimate the value of that.
What Makes a Wolves Fan?
I find the pushback against the excitement for Rubio interesting. He played here for six years. Admittedly none of them were successful. Ricky never played for a winning team until he left Minnesota. But he enjoyed playing for the Timberwolves. He didn’t grouse. While he did initially hold out it seemed like once he came over he embraced Minnesota. He was fun to watch. He played through a couple iterations of the Timberwolves, in both the Love and Towns eras. He was there for a few highs and a lot more lows.
So at the end of the day, any success the Timberwolves have with Ricky on the roster will be that much sweeter because of the time we’ve had with him. I’ll enjoy each win that Ricky plays a role in a little bit more. If we make the play-in game, it’ll be more fun to watch and I’ll be more invested because Ricky is on the team.
I could say that this matters to the Wolves because it’ll drive interest, television ratings, and (if not for covid) ticket sales. I could say that at a time when the team is up for sale it’s more important than ever for the team to be popular locally if we want the Wolves to stick around. And while those things are true, it wouldn’t be completely honest of me. Because for me personally, I would rather the Wolves have Ricky Rubio than the latest superstar on the trading block, James Harden.
I know that sounds crazy. Harden would drive far more interest in the Wolves than someone like Ricky[5]. I’ve emphasized how important winning games is, and he would undoubtedly represent a lot more wins. But at the end of the day, for me to enjoy wins I have to like the team I’m rooting for. And though I think he’s probably a top 30 all time player, I don’t like watching James Harden play basketball. I wouldn’t enjoy rooting for him as much as I would Ricky.
Yes, fandom means rooting for your team. But it also means rooting for players that you feel bonded to, even though for 99.9% of us we aren’t. Kevin Garnett doesn’t know me, but I feel like I know Kevin Garnett. He fought so hard and played at such a high level for the Timberwolves for so long that I was going to root for him and his team no matter what color jersey he was wearing or city he was temporarily representing.
And while Ricky Rubio is no Kevin Garnett[6] he might be one of the next best things that Wolves fans have. Kevin Love put up great numbers and had some nice moments but he wanted out. Jimmy Butler carried the team for a year but threw a tantrum and left[7]. KAT is an offensive force that’s somehow become underrated but even after watching him for five years I don’t feel like I know or understand him at all. That’s not the case with Ricky. Maybe it’s undeserved but Ricky connected with fans. Any success we have with Ricky will matter more because he’s on our team.
I understand the skepticism that trading for Ricky brought about. But this was a basketball trade made for basketball reasons. The Wolves will be better for it. And the tremendous bonus we get is that it’s with a player that means something to so many Wolves fans. So let’s look forward to an interesting year with one of the our all time-favorite Timberwolves on the court.
[1] Which was no one, but I still told people
[2] There’s no doubt that it was in part
[3] I will still die on the hill that he didn’t give too much time to KG. First, KG only averaged 15 minutes per game. And second, those were extremely valuable minutes. He had the best plus/minus net differential on the team (Rubio was second) and was the quarterback of that defense. He couldn’t play a lick of offense anymore, but he was still a good defensive player.
[4] Ricky should start the game and come out halfway through the first, and lead the reserve unit. He should close games. That closing lineup should be Russell-Rubio-Beasley-KAT and somebody with a defensive pulse. Saunders can stagger him and Russell to ensure one of them is always on the floor. They’re two of the top four players on the team. This isn’t complicated, but apparently it will take a while for everyone to come to this conclusion.
[5] To be clear, this is an academic exercise. There’s no way Harden is coming to Minnesota. Never going to happen.
[6] No one is, no one ever will be
[7] It worked out for him though, so it’s tough to blame him.
Anything Was Possible 
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