The Encouraging Start
Post maximum contract it’s almost difficult to remember the hope that Andrew Wiggins once inspired. After being a Cavalier in name only for just over a month, on October 29, 2014 Andrew Wiggins was the first number one pick to make his debut in a Timberwolves uniform.
And Wiggins wasn’t just any number one pick. In 2013 Anthony Bennett had been drafted first overall, largely by default. That wasn’t the case with Wiggins. With Joel Embiid injured, the debate over whether Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker would go first was fairly muted. Some disagreed, but most viewed Wiggins as the clear choice. Parker was viewed as a defensive liability and Wiggins had the kind of tools that projected him as potentially elite.
Projected. Wiggins wasn’t great in his one year at Kansas. He was fine. Shot 45% from the field and 34% from the college three point line. Kansas earned a two seed for the NCAA tournament but lost in the second round to 10 seed Stanford. Wiggins shot 1-6 with four turnovers as Embiid missed the game with an injury.
But this was Andrew Wiggins. He was “Maple Jordan.” Coming into his freshman year, Chad Ford projected him as the #1 overall pick and said he was one of the best prospects to come into the draft in a decade.
Wiggins made his debut that October on a Wolves team in transition, that looked to veterans like Mo Williams and Thaddeus Young to produce their offense. But he quickly asserted himself, averaging 16.9 points and winning rookie of the year. Some of his periphery stats weren’t great, but no one adds value their rookie year. There was no reason to doubt he would grow as a player.
Though it’s often forgotten, Wiggins did get better the next year. And the year after that. In 2016 in his second season Wiggns shot 45.9% from the field, an improvement over 43.7% the year before. In 2017 Wiggins shot 35.6% from three, his career high. Only five active NBA players scored more points in their first three seasons than Wiggins did with his 4995 from 2015-2017. Those players are Vince Carter, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Elite company.
Then this happened.
Jimmy Butler, one of the best and worst things to ever happen to the Wolves
The Jimmy Era
Jimmy Butler brought the Timberwolves to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. It’s unlikely they would have made it there without him. But it came at a cost, and the cost was greatest for Wiggins.
Wiggins usage rate went from 29% in 2017 to 23.4% in 2018 with Jimmy on the team. His true shooting percentage fell from 53.4% in 2017 to 50.5% in 2018, and then fell again to 49.3% in 2019. If Wiggins were more mature, more experienced, maybe he wouldn’t have fallen off the same way. Maybe instead of fading into the background he would have thrived on the easier matchups.
But Wiggins was just 22 when his coach decided that the young Timberwolves core wasn’t ready to win now. His coach traded for a wing that he trusted, someone that he thought could make the Wolves a contender.
And it wasn’t entirely unsuccessful. Though much maligned for its lack of three point shooting, the Wolves actually had the fourth highest offensive rating in the NBA. Its weak link though, was Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins drove to the rim less and less, taking just 22.9% of his shots within three feet of the rim.
But Wiggins didn’t magically improve once Jimmy was traded. His 2019 effort was even worse than the year before. It gave critics plenty of ammunition. When Wiggins chafed at being left off ESPN’s 100 best players in the NBA list, many of his critics scoffed at him in return.
And it was hard to blame them. But then something weird happened. Andrew Wiggins started playing indisputably great basketball.
Wiggins isn’t an MVP candidate by any stretch. He’s not the best player on his own team. But he’s started playing like a co-star instead of a tag along. It’s just ten games. But this is more than a hot streak. Wiggins is playing smarter than he ever has before.
It’s not the hottest or best he’s ever been. there’s some cause for concern that there will be some reversion, because we’ve seen that before. But there are encouraging signs that even if Wiggins cools off a little bit, he’ll still be far better than he was entering the season. And that’s because a different approach is part of his success this year. And it follows a pattern rather than being a complete aberration.
A Blip or a Trend?
Wiggins has looked this good over ten game stretches before. In fact, he’s looked better. Over a ten game stretch from February 4-27 in 2017, Wiggins averaged 30.2 points per game. He did it shooting 52.3% overall and 39% from three. His true shooting percentage was 60.2%. In a year that the Wolves went 31-51, they were 5-5 over that 10 game stretch.
So it’s not like Wiggins hasn’t played great for a ten game stretch before. But this time, he’s shooting more three pointers, has more assists, fewer turnovers, and fewer mid range shots.
Wiggins is only shooting 33.8% from three this season. It’s not his career best, which was 35.6% in 2017. It’s pretty much in line with the 33.9% he shot from three last year. The difference on threes is the volume. This year 31.4% of his shots are coming from beyond the arc.
Every year Wiggins has increased the percentage of his shots from three. Obviously that’s the direction the league has taken overall, but it’s not like Andrew hasn’t noticed. His rookie season just 11.1% of his shots came from three. Last year that number was 28.8%. This isn’t a blip, it’d be legitimately surprising if Wiggins didn’t finish the season taking at least 30% of his shots from beyond the arc.
His mid range habits have changed as well. Just 12.1% of his shots are coming from between 16 feet and the three point line, a six percent drop from last season. What’s interesting is that in 2017, Wiggins most successful season by far, he took a career high 25.3% of his shots from that range. 2017 was also his career high percentage in attempts from 10-16 feet, at 13.9%. That gave his critics all the more ammunition, to refer to him and any success as part of a bygone era. Basketball had passed him by.
But this year, being far less reliant on the mid range, Wiggins has been even more successful. In what may be a blip though, Wiggins is shooting better from mid range so far this year than he ever has before. Wiggins is shooting 47.1% from 10-16 feet and 40% from 16 to the three point line. His previous career highs from those ranges are 38.6% (2016) and 38.3% (2017) respectively. For a frame of reference, LeBron’s career high shot percentage from 10-16 feet is 48.1% and 44.7% from 16-three point. So it’s unlikely that Wiggins will continue to mimic LeBron James at his mid range apex, one of the best mid range shooters in the game.
The good thing though, is that despite his success from the mid range, Wiggins is still taking career lows from those areas. And again, this follows his recent history. After taking his highest percentage of shots from 10-16 and 16-3 point line in 2017, Wiggins has taken smaller shares of his shots from those areas every year.
So there’s plenty of reason to think that the number of his shots from the mid range will remain low. And even if those shots start falling less often, which they likely will, he takes them rarely enough that it won’t likely have a significant negative impact on his game. And if his threes start falling just a little more often, it’ll more than balance out.
What may be the most surprising change for Wiggins this season are his assist and turnover numbers. Wiggins is averaging 3.3 assists per game. It’s not like he’s turned into Steve Nash. But that still represents a career high, an improvement over the 2.5 assists per game last year. The passing numbers are more impressive when looking at assist percentage, which Wiggins is 16.9% for Wiggins this year, an improvement of his career high 10.9% last year. And that’s not even factoring in all the open threes that the Wolves are missing after they catch a pass from him. The Wolves are shooting 30.8% from three, compared to 39.9% from their opponents.
Even with the higher assist numbers, Wiggins is turning the ball over less. He’s averaging just 1.5 turnovers per game, a career low, along with a 6.1% turnover rate, also a career low. Given how far out of line these numbers are with his career averages it might be normal to expect some regression. Or it could be he’s worked at this part of his game and become a more dynamic passer.
Remember that 2017 stretch when Wiggins was on fire and averaged over 30 points per game? Even then during the best 10 game stretch of his career he only averaged 2.7 assists per game. In his career it has been extremely rare for Wiggins to average over three assists a game over a ten game stretch. Though over the last ten games of the 2019 season, Wiggins averaged….3.5 assists per game.
Even in that stretch he still averaged 2.5 turnovers per game. But there’s reason for optimism. If Wiggins can be a decent playmaker, something above a black hole or a passive and deferential deer in the headlights, it can give the Wolves offense a whole new look.
The Takeaway
Listen, Wiggins isn’t going to close the season with these numbers. He’s shooting ridiculously high from the mid range. He’s also shooting career highs from 0-3 feet (53.5%, previous high 48.6%) and 3-10 feet (46.7%, previous high 45.9%). But his shot distribution will prevent that backslide from being too strong. And the longer he remains a threat to kick out the ball, the higher percentage he will shoot at the rim.
Wiggins may not reach his goal of being an all star this season, especially not in the west. But this isn’t a total aberration. Wiggins will always have to endure some skeptics because of his maximum contract. But for the Wolves during this season, that’s not really a factor. What matters is whether or not Wiggins can help the team win basketball games. And he is certainly doing that.
Anything Was Possible 
Leave a comment